Morning News
Shell to Take Up to $2 Billion Impairment Hit, Expects Weaker Gas Trading

By Nadine PEREIRA
Published on Mon, 07/08/2024 - 00:00

Topic of the day

Shell expects to book up to $2 billion in post-tax impairments after delaying construction of a major biofuels plant as European energy majors grapple with weak market conditions, while trading in its core gas division is set to fall. The British energy giant said Friday that it expects to book an impairment after tax of between $1.5 billion and $2 billion mainly due to pausing construction of its biofuel’s facility in Rotterdam, as well as the divestment of its chemical’s refinery in Singapore. The paused construction of the Dutch biofuels plant - one of Europe’s largest, set to produce 820,000 metric tons of biofuels a year - was largely due to weak European market conditions, with profit margins squeezed by a large drop in U.S. renewable fuel-credits prices. Shares in biofuels market leader Neste have shed nearly half their value this year, with the Finnish company in May cutting its renewable-fuel margin forecast. Shell’s rival BP similarly paused biofuels investment at U.S. and German oil refineries recently. Shell expects to write down between $600 million and $1 billion on the asset, while the impairment after the sale of its Singapore refinery is expected to be between $600 million and $800 million.

Swiss stocks

Despite holding in positive territory till well past noon, the Switzerland market ended on a weak note on Friday as stocks fell on a mild bout of selling pressure in the last couple of hours of the day's session. The mood turned cautious around late afternoon with investors switching their focus to the second round of the French election. Stocks gained in some strength in early trades after data showed an improvement in Swiss consumer confidence in the month of June. The benchmark SMI ended with a loss of 62.66 points or 0.52% at 12,006.14, more than 100 points down from the day's high of 12,111.63. Sonova ended 1.89% down. ABB, Logitech International, Givaudan and Kuehne + Nagel dropped 1.3 to 1.6%. Alcon, Holcim, Swatch Group, Zurich Insurance Group, Lindt & Spruengli, Novartis, Richemont, Geberit, Sika and SGS lost 0.4 to 1%. Straumann Holding climbed 1.87%. VAT Group and Partners Group both gained nearly 1.5%. Lonza Group, Roche Holdings and SIG Group posted modest gains. Survey results from the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) said confidence among Swiss consumers showed some resilience in June, although it remained negative. The consumer confidence index rose to -36.6 from -38.0 in May. The expected score was -35.0. Further, this was the highest reading since February 2023, when it was -34.80. However, the consumer sentiment index remained below the long-term average. In the corresponding month last year, the reading was -39.6.

International markets

Europe
European stocks failed to hold early gains and closed broadly lower on Friday, as the mood turned cautious ahead of the second round of the French legislative elections on Sunday. Investors digested the crucial jobs data from the U.S., and assessed the likely move of the Federal Reserve in upcoming monetary policy meetings. Stocks edged higher early on in the session after the Labour Party secured a landslide victory in the U.K. election to end 14 years of Conservative rule, as widely expected. Regarding Sunday's parliamentary elections in France, opinion polls show the second-round run-off vote may lead to a hung parliament with no clear majority. The pan European Stoxx 600 ended down 0.18%. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 drifted down 0.45%, France's CAC 40 ended lower by 0.26%, and Germany's DAX edged up 0.14%. Switzerland's SMI dropped 0.52%. Among other markets in Europe, Finland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden and Turkiye closed weak. Austria and Portugal edged down marginally. Denmark, Greece, Iceland and Russia ended higher, while Belgium settled flat. In the UK market, HSBC Holdings, Whitbread, IHG, Standard Chartered, Smiths Group, Ashtead Group and Aviva ended lower by 2 to 2.6%. Rio Tinto ended nearly 2% down. Barclays Group, Rolls-Royce Holdings, BP, Smith (DS), Prudential, Mondi, Shell, BAE Systems and 3i Group also ended notably lower. Smurfit Kappa Group, United Utilities, Vistry Group, Severn Trent, Fresnillo, Taylor Wimpey, Marks & Spencer, Barratt Developments, Persimmon, Berkeley Group Holdings, B&M European Value Retail and Sainsbury (J) gained 2 to 3.5%. In the German market, Rheinmetall fell nearly 5%. Deutsche Boerse, Deutsche Bank, Munich RE, BASF, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Hannover Rueck and BMW lost 0.6 to 1.6%.

United States
The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 closed out the week at fresh highs after new data on the labor market shored up confidence that the Federal Reserve can soon cut rates. The gains extended a run of record closes for the two indexes, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq adding 0.9% Friday to bring its weekly advance to 3.5%. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% for the day, and 2% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher, and was up 0.7% for the week. Data Friday showed the U.S. added 206,000 jobs last month, continuing a remarkably strong stretch of hiring. But the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, adding to recent signs that the job market is gradually cooling. Investors had been on edge about the labor market after surprisingly strong hiring in May dented hopes for interest-rate cuts this year. After Friday’s jobs data, traders in interest-rate futures were betting that there is a 78% chance that the Fed will cut rates at least once by its September meeting, compared with 74% on Wednesday, before the July 4 holiday, according to CME Group data. “September is a live meeting for a rate cut,” said John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management, due to the weakening trend in job creation. The S&P 500 has rallied 17% this year, fueled by investor enthusiasm for a small group of tech giants that are focused on creating or using artificial-intelligence technology. On Friday, technology shares continued to rally. Meta Platforms rose 5.9%, hitting a fresh all-time high. Tesla shares rose 27% for the week, their best since January 2023, extending a rally that has erased its losses for the year. Chip maker Advanced Micro Devices climbed 4.9%.

Asia
At the start of the new trading week, no uniform trend can be discerned on the stock markets in East Asia and Australia. Fears of a trade war are once again weighing on the Chinese stock markets after EU tariffs on Chinese electric cars came into effect on Friday. In Shanghai, the Composite Index fell by 0.5 per cent. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong lost 1.3 per cent.

Bonds
In the U.S. bond markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury declined to 4.272%, after settling Wednesday at 4.346%. This put yields lower for the week following two weeks of gains.

Analysis
UBS raises EMS-Chemie target to CHF 730 (630) – Neutral
Deutsche Bank raises Holcim target to CHF 81 (78) – Hold
Citi raises Vinci target to EUR 145 (135) – Buy

Produced by MBI Martin Brückner Infosource GmbH & Co. KG on behalf of Swissquote. All news is acquired with journalistic accuracy. No liability is assumed for delays or errors.


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